The date has moved twice
Once is a schedule. Twice is a decision nobody is making, and the third slip is already priced in by everyone on the project.
Guide · research
Gartner expects more than seventy percent of recent ERP implementations to miss their original business case. That statistic gets quoted constantly and explains nothing. This is what we actually found underneath it, across forty-one deployments we were brought in to rescue.
Three questions about size, system, and where it stalled. You get a written read on whether it is recoverable.
The causes
That is the finding worth sitting with. In almost every case the product could do the job, and something else stopped it.
The largest cause by a distance, and it almost never presents as a requirements problem. It presents as scope creep, as a partner who "keeps finding new things," or as a finance team that is "not engaged." Underneath all three is the same thing: a small number of structural decisions were never actually made.
Four decisions do most of the damage — the chart of accounts, the entity and dimension model, the approval matrix, and the close calendar. Each one feels administrative and each one determines what the system can do for the next five years. When they are deferred past the design phase, every subsequent week produces work that has to be redone once they are finally settled.
The tell is specific: someone says "we can decide that during testing." Nothing that shapes the data model can be decided during testing.
Second largest, and the most avoidable. Duplicate customers with four spellings, classes encoding three dimensions at once, an Ask My Accountant balance holding two years of unresolved items, fixed assets in a spreadsheet that does not tie to the ledger. None of this is unusual and none of it is a moral failing — it is what eight years of a growing business looks like.
What makes it fatal is timing. Most projects discover it during the data load, which is month four, which is after the design was finalised on assumptions the data does not support. Discovering it in week one costs a fortnight; discovering it in month four costs the schedule.
A project sponsored by finance but decided by committee stalls at every crossroads. The role that matters is not a project manager — it is someone who can settle a process disagreement between two departments without escalating, and who will be held to the go-live date.
In our sample this was frequently a controller who had the knowledge but not the mandate, or an operations lead with the mandate but not the accounting depth. The combination is rarer than companies expect, and when it is missing no partner can substitute for it.
Every gap has three possible answers: change the process, configure the system, or write code. Teams under time pressure reach for the third because it is the only one that does not require convincing anyone. Each script is fast and each one is an upgrade blocker, an undocumented dependency, and a piece of institutional knowledge that leaves with whoever wrote it.
A useful diagnostic: for each customisation on the list, ask what process it is preserving and whether that process exists because of a limitation in the system you are leaving. A surprising share of them are workarounds for the old software being carefully rebuilt in the new one.
Forty-one deployments is a small sample and we state it on the chart rather than in a footnote. It is drawn from projects we were brought in to rescue, which biases it toward failures with recoverable causes — a project that failed because the company ran out of money never calls anyone. Read it as a field observation, not as research.
Warning signs
Once is a schedule. Twice is a decision nobody is making, and the third slip is already priced in by everyone on the project.
Chart of accounts, entity structure, or who owns a process — relitigated weekly because the first decision was never actually ratified by anyone with authority.
Each item closes a gap and adds an upgrade blocker. A list that grows faster than it shrinks means process change is being avoided.
Parallel running past its planned window is not caution. It is the organisation telling you the new system is not trusted.
Questions
Two days, a written assessment, no fee — including the assessment that says your current partner should finish.